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FINAL SCRIPT – DARK WINTER EXERCISE
DARK WINTER
Bioterrorism Exercise
Andrews Air Force Base
June 22-23, 2001
PROPERTY of
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
ANSER, & Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
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FINAL SCRIPT – DARK WINTER EXERCISE
EXPLANATORY NOTE TO THE EXERCISE SCRIPT:
In their roles as National Security Council (NSC) members responding to the smallpox
crisis, exercise participants were given information about unfolding events in four
important ways: briefings, memos, newspaper summaries, and video news clips.
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Each of the three segments began with briefings delivered to the NSC meeting by
exercise controllers playing the roles of deputies or special assistants. Subsequent
briefings in each segment provided NSC “players” with possible policy options
for consideration.
Throughout the exercise, individual participants were given memos on issues or
events within the purview of their position or agency. Participants responded to
events in whatever way the felt appropriate.
The exercise began with a briefing on the geopolitical context in which the
scenario occurs. At the start of segments 2 and 3, summaries of relevant news
coverage of the epidemic were shown.
At five different times in the exercise, video news clips were shown which
conveyed the breaking news stories occurring at that time in the scenario. The text
of the news clips is not shown in this exercise script.
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This script includes only information that was delivered to the participants. The
comments and decisions made by participants during the exercise are not part of this
exercise script. They will be summarized in separate reports.
PROPERTY of
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
ANSER, & Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
2
FINAL SCRIPT – DARK WINTER EXERCISE
INTRODUCTION TO EXERCISE
GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT BRIEFING
Randy Larsen, Deputy National Security Advisor
Taiwan-China Tensions
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Angry rhetoric between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
has reached an all time high.
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One month ago, the PRC “tested” medium range missiles along a flight path
that passed through Taiwan’s airspace.
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An outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease in Taiwan began about three weeks
ago and is having a devastating impact on the local swine industry.
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Press reports have speculated that the current outbreak may have been
deliberately introduced by the Chinese. China has denied these rumors.
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Taiwanese officials have compared this outbreak to the 1997 FMD epidemic
that transformed Taiwan from an exporter to an importer of pork. As a result,
China was able to capture the Pacific Rim pork market.
Nuke/Bio Smuggling
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Last month Russian authorities, with support from the FBI, arrested Yusuuf
Abdul Aziiz, a known operative in Al-Qaida and a close personal friend and
suspected senior lieutenant of Usama bin Laden. Yusuuf was caught in a sting
operation that had been developing during the last year. He was attempting to
acquire 50 kilograms of plutonium and was also attempting to arrange the
purchase of several biological pathogens that had been weaponized by the
Soviet Union.
Suspected BW Production - Iraq
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Six months ago, the US lifted sanctions against Iraq and ceased enforcement
of the“no-fly zones”.
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Saddam has since pursued an aggressive effort to upgrade military forces and
has imported equipment and materials that might be used to build chemical or
biological weapons.
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The Al Daura vaccine plant, near Baghdad, closed by UN inspectors after the
Gulf War, renewed full-scale production in 2001. The ostensible justification
for this was the preparation of vaccines against Foot & Mouth disease.
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There are also reports that several top of scientists from the former Soviet
bioweapons program began working in Iraq and Iran 1 yr ago.
Southwest Asia – 2 days ago
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2 days ago, Iraqi forces in the South of Iraq moved into offensive positions
along the Kuwaiti border.
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The Iraqi government denies any hostile intent and maintains that these troop
movements are part of routine military exercises.
PROPERTY of
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
ANSER, & Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
3
FINAL SCRIPT – DARK WINTER EXERCISE
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Yesterday, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain requested
deployment of US, British and French forces to Southwest Asia, to guard
against possible attempts by Iraq to seize Kuwaiti oil fields.
Russia and China oppose Allied deployment.
The US has announced it is moving an aircraft carrier battle group to the Gulf.
US Domestic Conditions
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US Economy is in good shape
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Has been especially severe winter and heating oil prices, especially in the
Northeast are high.
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Polls show slim majority of Americans oppose a major deployment onf US
troops to the Persian Gulf
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Most Americans agree that Saddam’s Iraqi regime represents a real threat to
stability in the region and to American interests.
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Key information on US Oil Imports being distributed.
MEMO GIVEN TO ALL PARTICIPANTS
Oil Information
“2001 statistics from the Energy Information Administration:
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US Crude Oil Imports are
8.46 million
barrels per day. Of this, the
US Imports
about 26% of its crude oil from the Middle East,
or
2.21 million barrels day.
This is comprised of 1.72 million from Saudi Arabia, 0.25 million from Kuwait and
0.24 million from Iraq.
Other Significant Oil Imports from non-Arab countries are as follows: Canada - 1.29
million, Mexico - 1.03 million, Venezuela - 1.234 million, Nigeria - .859 million
US production of crude oil (as of 1999) was
5.93 million
barrels per day. Assuming
this number has been fairly consistent over the past two years,
the US imports about
60% of its crude oil.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) currently has about 540 million barrels in its
reserves located in Louisiana and Texas. (Not all of this is crude oil). According to
the SPR, this would be sufficient to supplement US oil requirements for
54 days.
Keep in mind that the maximum estimated speed for draw-down in an emergency is
4.3 million barrels a day.
If all imports to the US were stopped during a crisis, the SPR could not keep up with
daily US requirements due to draw-down limitations.”
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PROPERTY of
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
ANSER, & Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
4
FINAL SCRIPT – DARK WINTER EXERCISE
SEGMENT 1—December 9, 2002
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING
MEMO GIVEN TO PRESIDENT, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR,
SECRETARY OF HHS, FEMA DIRECTOR, 7:00 PM
The Deputies Committee recommends focusing meeting and decision-making on
following issues:
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What policies and priorities should govern smallpox vaccine distribution?
Should plans for military deployment to SW Asia proceed?
What should we tell our allies about the source and scope of the outbreak, risk of
spread abroad, implications for military coalition in the Gulf?
What should the American people be told?
PROPERTY of
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
ANSER, & Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
5

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