2007_Critical-Thinking-and-Intelligence-Analysos_ndic_moore_crit_analysis_hires.pdf

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The National Defense Intelligence College supports
and encourages research on intelligence issues that
distills lessons and improves Intelligence Community
capabilities for policy-level and operational consumers
Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis,
Second Printing (with revisions)
David T. Moore
This series of Occasional Papers presents the work of faculty, students
and others whose research on intelligence issues is supported or otherwise
encouraged by the National Defense Intelligence College (
NDIC
) through
its Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. Occasional Papers are
distributed to Department of Defense schools and to the Intelligence
Community, and unclassified papers are available to the public through
the National Technical Information Service (www.ntis.gov). Selected
papers are also available through the U.S. Government Printing Office
(www.gpo.gov).
This work builds on earlier publications in this series, particularly
Occasional Papers Two, Six, and Seven;
Getting Intelligence Right: The Power
of Logical Procedure, Intelligence Essentials for Everyone,
and
Intelligence Analysis
in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods.
The author’s insights have been developed through years of creative
interaction with the Community’s leaders in analytic methododology,
and tested for practicality by successive waves of students in training
and education courses throughout the Community.
Proposed manuscripts for these papers are submitted for consideration
to the
NDIC
Press Editorial Board. Papers undergo review by senior
officials in Defense, Intelligence and civilian academic or business
communities. Manuscripts or requests for additional copies of Occasional
Papers should be addressed to Defense Intelligence Agency, National
Defense Intelligence College,
MC-X,
Bolling
AFB
, Washington,
DC
20340-5100.
This publication has been approved for unrestricted distribution by the
Office of Security Review, Department of Defense.
Russell Swenson@dia.mil, Editor and Director
Center for Strategic Intelligence Research
C
ritiCal
t
hinking
and
i
ntelligenCe
a
nalysis
Occasional Paper Number Fourteen
d
avid
t. M
oore
National Defense Intelligence College
Washington, DC
March 2007
The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author. They do
not represent the official position of the National Security Agency, the
Department of Defense, or any other agency of the U.S. Government.
C
ontents
Figures and Tables ........................................................................
v
Preface .........................................................................................
vii
Foreword
Mark M. Lowenthal ............................................................... ix
Commentary
Jeffrey R. Cooper ................................................................. xiii
Francis J. Hughes..................................................................
xvi
Gregory F. Treverton
...........................................................
xvii
Acknowledgments.......................................................................
xix
Abstract
......................................................................................... 1
Definitions
..................................................................................... 2
Introduction: How Do People Reason? ........................................ 3
What Is Critical Thinking?............................................................ 8
Defining Critical Thinking
................................................ 8
Standards for Critical Thinking
...................................... 10
Skill-Based Definitions
.................................................... 13
A Disposition to Think Critically
.................................... 15
The Role of Questions .................................................... 17
Pseudo-Critical Thinking
................................................ 18
What Can Be Learned from the Past?
Thinking Critically about Cuba ............................................ 20
Deploying the Missiles..................................................... 20
Assessing the Implications
............................................... 24
Between Dogmatism and Refutation
.............................. 26
Lacking: Disconfirmation
................................................ 29
The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis ...... 33
Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context .................... 37
Ten Years Later, They Meet Again
................................. 45
Judgment: Critical Thinking Would
Have Made a Difference
........................................... 46
– iii –

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