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IMPROVING INTELLIGENCE IN A COUNTERINSURGENCY OR
COUNTERTERRORISM ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE APPLICATION OF A
CRITICAL THINKING-BASED FRAMEWORK
A Dissertation
Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of
Louisiana State University and
Agricultural and Mechanical College
in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
In
The School of Human Resource Education
and Workforce Development
by
James Henry Hess II
BGS Northwestern State University, 2003
MA Louisiana State University, 2005
December 2011
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The doctoral process has been an exciting, albeit challenging, experience. I have enjoyed
the tremendous support of a fantastic cadre of professors along the way. My committee
members have been incredibly supportive; Dr. Curtis Friedel is the consummate scholar and a
good friend. He served as my major professor, and also co-authored the framework that was
used in this study. Dr. Friedel is a true professional, and always found the time to provide input
effectively and in a useful manner. Dr. Krisanna Machtmes has been a remarkable and willing
participant in providing assistance that helped me understand the intricacies of qualitative
research. Dr. Michael Burnett, a wise and effective leader, truly enabled my participation in this
program. I greatly appreciate the efforts of all three of these dedicated professors.
A very special acknowledgement needs to go to the three professors of the LSU MALA
in Military History program that is offered at Fort Polk, LA. Dr. Stanley Hilton, who served as
the program director, without him, that phenomenal program, which has high notoriety amongst
many Army officers, would never have existed. Dr. Hilton also served on my doctoral
committee, and personifies that type of professor I would emulate. The other two members of
the Fort Polk program are Dr. Karl Roider and Dr. William Clark. Dr. Roider is a professor the
highest caliber, and I have always thoroughly enjoyed our many conversations. Dr. Clark always
provided an interesting and enjoyable learning environment.
Finally, I would like to thank my wife Donna, and our children: Aaron, Robert, Jordan,
and Michael. Our children always brighten my day, and provide me all the motivation in the
world to continue to strive and achieve my goals. I always want to provide a worthy example for
them. My wife, Donna, is my partner in life and my best friend. She is the most amazing person
I have ever met, and I am always humbled by her love and commitment to our family and me.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................ ii
ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................................v
CHAPTER
1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY .......................................................................................1
Introduction to the Conceptual Framework ...................................................................2
Statement of the Problem ...............................................................................................5
Purpose for the Study .....................................................................................................6
Significance of the Study ...............................................................................................7
Definition of Terms........................................................................................................9
Limitations, Delimitations, and Assumptions..............................................................12
2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE ...............................................................................................16
Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................16
Critical Thinking Skills ................................................................................................17
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield ...................................................................21
Summary of Research Findings/Results for Critical Thinking ....................................24
Learning Critical Thinking ..........................................................................................25
Teaching Critical Thinking ..........................................................................................27
Summary of Critical Thinking Research .....................................................................30
Historical Counterinsurgencies ....................................................................................32
Summary ......................................................................................................................34
3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................36
Introduction ..................................................................................................................36
Research Design...........................................................................................................36
Reliability and Validity of the Study ...........................................................................39
Participants ...................................................................................................................41
The Case-Based Scenario ............................................................................................41
Data Collection Procedures..........................................................................................43
Treatment of the Data ..................................................................................................44
Grounded Theory .........................................................................................................44
Criteria for Sources ......................................................................................................45
Researcher Lens ...........................................................................................................46
My Philosophy of Intelligence Analysis ......................................................................50
Summary ......................................................................................................................51
4 FINDINGS OF THE STUDY...............................................................................................52
Introduction ..................................................................................................................52
Review of the Critical Thinking Intelligence Analysis Process (CTIAP) ...................54
Cadets’ Responses Pertaining to Using the CTIAP .....................................................55
Understanding the Operational Environment ..................................................55
iii
Familiarization with the Threat Groups ...........................................................61
Details and Completeness with Threat Courses of Action ..............................67
Developing a Comprehensive Target List .......................................................72
Ease and Comfort of Using CTIAP .................................................................76
Panel of Experts’ Responses of Cadets’ Products and Analysis..................................81
Understanding the Operational Environment ..................................................81
Familiarization with Threat Groups .................................................................84
Details and Completeness with Threat Courses of Action ..............................86
Holistic Nature of Targeting Lethally and Non-Lethally ................................90
Examining Historical Counterinsurgencies .................................................................93
U.S. Philippine War .........................................................................................93
British Malaya ..................................................................................................96
How the Cadets’ Responses Relate to the Historical Counterinsurgencies ...100
The Panel of Experts’ Responses and Historical Counterinsurgencies .........104
Summary ....................................................................................................................107
5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................109
Summary of the Study ...............................................................................................109
Conclusions ................................................................................................................112
Recommendations ......................................................................................................119
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................122
APPENDIX
A: ASCOPE/PMESII INTERFACE ..........................................................................126
B: CASE-BASED SCENARIO .................................................................................127
C: EXAMPLE CADET ANALYSIS .........................................................................148
D: EXAMPLE CADET TARGETING MATRIX .....................................................151
E: INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARD APPROVAL ...........................................152
VITA ............................................................................................................................................153
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ABSTRACT
The intelligence community is responsible for providing competent analysis and
assessments pertaining to the many significant geo-political situations that may potentially or do
effect the nation’s interests. The intelligence community has always experienced challenges
living up to that charge, and while it may merely be a case of the nature of the profession, there
are always lessons that can be learned and processes that may improve the analytical processes.
Critical thinking is a cognitive process that may be able to provide that improvement to the
analytical processes, and when an analytical framework is built by applying these cognitive
skills, the analytical effort may become more focused and meaningful.
This study examined an intelligence analysis framework that was built using specific
cognitive critical thinking skills. It was demonstrated that intelligence analysis did improve,
specifically with the novice analysts that participated, and there was demonstrated specificity in
the respondents’ analyses. A panel of experts provided insight and content assurance that
demonstrated the intelligence analysis and products produced were valuable for operational
usage. Finally, successful historical counterinsurgencies were examined in relationship to the
analytical framework that was utilized in order to understand how this analysis can lead to
operational success.
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