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CYBERSECURITY
INITIATIVE
New America Cybersecurity Fellows Paper Series - Number 1
THE DECLINING HALF -LIFE OF SECRETS
And the Future of Signals Intelligence
By Peter Swire
July 2015
© 2015 NEW AMERICA
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Peter Swire,
Nancy J. and Lawrence P. Huang Professor of Law and Ethics, Scheller College of Business, Georgia
Institute of Technology; Senior Counsel, Alston & Bird LLP; and New America Cybersecurity Fellow
ABOUT THE CYBERSECURITY INITIATIVE
The Internet has connected us. Yet the policies and debates that sur-
round the security of our networks are too often disconnected, disjoint-
ed, and stuck in an unsuccessful status quo. This is what New Ameri-
ca’s Cybersecurity Initiative is designed to address. Working across our
International Security Program and the Open Technology Institute, we
believe that it takes a wider network to face the multitude of diverse se-
curity issues. We engage across organizations, issue areas, professional
fields, and business sectors. And through events, writing and research,
our aim is to help improve
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many thanks to Ross Anderson, Ashkan
Soltani and Lee Tien for assistance with
this draft, and to the fellow members
and staff of the President’s Review Group
on Intelligence and Communication
Technology, where many of these ideas
were developed. This paper represents
the author’s views, and not the views of
other members of the Review Group.
PHOTO CREDIT COVER PHOTO
- Shutterstock
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction: The Changing Nature of Secrets
The Declining Half-Life of Secrets
The Continuing Effects of Moore’s Law Reduce Secrecy
The Sociological Challenge to NSA Secrecy
The Changing Sources and Methods for Signals Intelligence
The Front-Page Test
Conclusion: Governing Intelligence When Secrets Become Known
Endnotes
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The nature of secrets is changing. Secrets that would once have survived the 25 or 50 year test of time are more and
more prone to leaks. The declining half-life of secrets has implications for the intelligence community and other
secretive agencies, as they must now wrestle with new challenges posed by the transformative power of information
technology innovation as well as the changing methods and targets of intelligence collection.
This Page Left Intentionally Blank
INTRODUCTION: THE CHANGING NATURE OF SECRETS
The nature of secrets is changing. The “half-life of secrets” is declining sharply for many signals
intelligence and other intelligence activities as secrets that may have been kept successfully for
25 years or more are exposed well before.
For evidence, one need look no further than the 2015 breach at the Office of Personnel
Management (OPM), of personnel records for 22 million U.S. government employees and family
members. For spy agencies, theft of the security clearance records is uniquely painful – whoever
gains access to the breached files will have an unparalleled ability to profile individuals in the
intelligence community and subject them to identity theft.
OPM is just one instance in a long string of high-profile breaches, where hackers gain access
to personal information, trade secrets, or classified government material. The focus of the
discussion here, though, is on complementary trends in information technology, including the
continuing effects of Moore’s Law, the sociology of the information technology community,
and changed sources and methods for signals intelligence. This article is about those risks of
discovery and how the intelligence community must respond.
My views on this subject were formed during my experience as one of five members of President
Obama’s Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technology in 2013. There is
a crucial difference between learning about a wiretap on the German Chancellor from three
decades ago and learning that a wiretap has targeted the Current German Chancellor, Angela
Merkel, while she is still in office and able to object effectively. In government circles, this
alertness to negative consequences is sometimes called “the front-page test,” which describes
how our actions will look if they appear on the front page of the newspaper. The front-page test
becomes far more important to decision-makers when secrets become known sooner. Even if
the secret operation is initially successful, the expected costs of disclosure become higher as the
average time to disclosure decreases.
The greater relevance of the front-page test has direct and important implications for
governance of secret intelligence operations. For good security reasons, intelligence agencies
have historically been insular, relying on heavily vetted employees, with proven loyalty and
discretion, and working in Secure Classified Facilities surrounded by physical and electronic
barriers. This insularity, however, makes it harder for intelligence agencies to predict how
diverse outside actors will view revelation of a secret program. As this article contends, the
declining half-life of secrets is an important factual reason to bring greater transparency and
more perspectives into the governance of sensitive signals intelligence activities. As of June 2015,
the Obama administration had already taken a series of measures, consistent with the Review
Group’s recommendations, in that direction.
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These changes, however, were difficult to accept
within the intelligence community; understanding the declining half-life of secrets will help the
community better assess what is possible and optimal for the less-secret future.
THE DECLINING HALF-LIFE OF SECRETS
The term “half-life” in physics indicates the time needed for a quantity to fall to half of its
value as compared to its initial quantity. The term is most notably used for radioactive decay of
atoms – how long it takes for half of the plutonium atoms, for instance, to decay into different
elements or isotopes. For those trying to keep a secret, a leak is analogous to radioactive decay –
The Declining Half-Life of Secrets | New America Cybersecurity Fellows Paper - Number 1 | July 2015
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